Due to the fact that Bisco’s Collar’s IIQ only applies to normal monsters the actual overall IIQ effect is much lower than the item states. It is currently estimated that Bisco’s Collar is the equivalent of 22.5% IIQ in an unsextanted normal map. But, Does Bisch Affect the Drops of the Map?
1. A sample size of 60* maps in the control group and 60* with the Bisco’s while also having all kinds of other uncontrolled variables like map rolls. Sample size, in the technical sense, isn’t the right term to use Here. These are samples of a Monte Carlo simulation. Population statistics do not apply here, as there isn’t even a population to begin with. The “hypothesis” of these “experiments” is to determine if one variable (player item quantity) is directly correlated to another (map drops). The great thing about Monte Carlo simulations is that they work even when there are a lot of factors that can’t be controlled. By nature of the way that PoE works, the game effectively rolls the dice for us on each trial.
2.There are definitely other ways he could have controlled some variables more, but there would still be too many variables for anybody to be comfortable with. The great thing about Monte Carlo simulations is that trends emerge early, and confidence intervals grow with successive trials.
3. Instead of thinking of this as “numbers of maps run”, think of it as “number of white monsters killed”. This is more true to the nature of the problem, although it doesn’t cleanly answer the question “Should I use Bisco’s in my build?” Assuming an average of 500 white mobs per map (wild guess), he would have run 30,000 simulations with 60 different sets of randomized parameters.
4. The early trend showing maps drop 50% MORE often with Bisco’s is significant enough to have a fair degree of confidence that the null hypothesis (Bisco’s doesn’t affect map drops) is false. It is highly improbable that the null hypothesis is true.
5. The best part is: anyone else can add to this dataset and improve the results. I’m sure nobody who objects wants to actually try to add to the conversation, but thanks u/Empyrianwarpgate for contributing to the community.
I’m just pointing out that the evidence that’s been provided so far is almost completely worthless and doesn’t justify any belief that Bisco’s does affect map drops. If you have any questions about this or have any suggestions for Path of Exile articles, please leave your suggestion below. https://www.u4gm.com/path-of-exile